Quintas Quarterly Economic Review by James McCarthy
Since mid 2008 successive Governments have taken over €28 billion out of the Irish economy in tax rises and spending cuts, the equivalent of well over 15% of national output. The most recent budget removed €3.5 billion. The Governments aim in doing this is to leave the EU/IMF austerity programme and to reduce the budget deficit to below 3% of GDP by 2015, which currently stands at 8.2%, one of the highest in the EU.
The Government is relying on economic growth to meet its budget targets in 2013. It is forecasting 1.5% GDP growth for the year. This growth level could be seen as optimistic given our dependence on an export led recovery to achieve this. Our main export markets continue to experience difficulties, particularly with the eurozone in recession and a weakening British economy.
While bond yields reflect success for the Government in meeting its targets set by the EU/IMF, the sustainability of Ireland’s public debt which is expected to hit 118% of GDP this year is of concern. Almost a third of this debt is accounted for by Government support to the banking sector. This is where much emphasis has been placed by the Government, trying to negotiate a restructuring with the ECB on promissory notes worth €30 billion. A reduction on our debt is important and there is now much emphasis being placed on Ireland having the EU presidency at the start of 2013 as a means of achieving this.
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